Looking ahead….but not too far | 10 April 2020

Where is our path from here ?

Although we had a shortened holiday week, the markets continue to be centered on volatility and monetary action to foster stability. We see the communication and education improve every day on isolation and prevention through this health emergency yet we’re entering a critical period before reaching resolution.

The advisor community is focused on looking after their families, clients and one another, communicating with clarity, and reaching out to help a broader audience. Yet they are undertaking a more urgent review of their process to uncover greater efficiency as this correction has made that abbreviated fund review or workaround untenable. So inconsistencies in fund selection, rebalancing and tax management are more apparent.

There is a growing acceptance that the path ahead for equities, fixed income and alternatives will be anew and embracing the status quo is out the window. Adding value for clients is more challenging with higher expectations and limitations with incumbent solutions. The advisor competition whether pursuing growth, a deeper niche or a better lifestyle is adapting and adopting better tools for fund solutions.

Now for something new before the Week in Review –
Breakpoint Alerts
Next week we will move these alerts to a separate mailing, given the holiday
weekend, I wanted to send over a quick preview:
sp500-2020-04-10-latest-breakpoint
Despite the almost 25% rally in the S&P 500 in the past three weeks, our models
are bullish on only 45 stocks. The bearish trends mostly started on Feb 25th and
the bullish trends emerged around March 19th.  However we can see that stocks
started to diverge around Feb 3rd and that sectors such as Health Care, Industrials
and Information Technology entered into their current bearish regime while
several Biotech firms (and Amazon) entering into their current bullish regime. 
Sometimes our forecasts diverge and we we find quantitative evidence for a
bullish AND bearish trends. Currently Hershey ($HSY) is 64% bullish and 36%
bearish.  The red lines below signal points in time when HSY changed trends or
volatilities.
sp500-2020-04-10-hsy-breakpoint
The most bullish signals are coming from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ($REGN),
Newmont Corporation ($NEM), Citrix Systems ($CTXS), Cabot Oil & Gas ($COG),
Apache Corporation ($APA) while some of the most bearish signals are coming
from: Fox Corporation Class B ($FOX), Wynn Resorts Ltd ($WYNN), United Airlines
Holdings ($UAL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc ($HLT), Norwegian Cruise Line
Holdings ($NCLH) A full write-up and chart-pack is coming tomorrow. Please reply
to this email if you are interested.  We’d love to know how you incorporate alerts
into your market analysis.
Email to join the waitlist for early access
Remind me what Breakpoint is again?

We help advisors and investors better navigate changing market conditions, our proprietary forecasting and alerts help investors separate signal from the noise and focus their time researching the opportunities where machine learning models, trend systems and historical relationships have broken down.

Alternative data sources for your COVID-19 Resource Center

We plan to add new resources each week that we have reviewed which highlight the environmental and economic impact to the U.S. and global systems.

Our community shares ideas for alternative information to enhance their research process and client narrative so we always welcome your suggestions.

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Question of the Week:

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What we’re Reading:

Here is a snapshot of the best articles compiled and read by our team:

If you have any difficulty accessing these articles and papers, please reach us through our website or directly at john.dibenedetto@portformer.com.

If you know of someone in your professional community or study group who is looking for assistance or clear perspective, please share our name. Forward this email to them and you can find us on social media at Twitter @Portformer and LinkedIn at Portformer.

We’re happy to share our network, so if we can make an introduction or referral to a potential provider, financial partner or may be considering another path for your business, please don’t hesitate to contact us and most of all, there is no financial benefit to us.

Always be safe,

Sean Kruzel and the Portformer™ Team

John DiBenedetto

Sales | Business Development | Customer Success

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