Where is our path from here ?
Although we had a shortened holiday week, the markets continue to be centered on volatility and monetary action to foster stability. We see the communication and education improve every day on isolation and prevention through this health emergency yet we’re entering a critical period before reaching resolution.
The advisor community is focused on looking after their families, clients and one another, communicating with clarity, and reaching out to help a broader audience. Yet they are undertaking a more urgent review of their process to uncover greater efficiency as this correction has made that abbreviated fund review or workaround untenable. So inconsistencies in fund selection, rebalancing and tax management are more apparent.
There is a growing acceptance that the path ahead for equities, fixed income and alternatives will be anew and embracing the status quo is out the window. Adding value for clients is more challenging with higher expectations and limitations with incumbent solutions. The advisor competition whether pursuing growth, a deeper niche or a better lifestyle is adapting and adopting better tools for fund solutions.
|Now for something new before the Week in Review –|
Next week we will move these alerts to a separate mailing, given the holiday
weekend, I wanted to send over a quick preview:
|Despite the almost 25% rally in the S&P 500 in the past three weeks, our models |
are bullish on only 45 stocks. The bearish trends mostly started on Feb 25th and
the bullish trends emerged around March 19th. However we can see that stocks
started to diverge around Feb 3rd and that sectors such as Health Care, Industrials
and Information Technology entered into their current bearish regime while
several Biotech firms (and Amazon) entering into their current bullish regime.
Sometimes our forecasts diverge and we we find quantitative evidence for a
bullish AND bearish trends. Currently Hershey ($HSY) is 64% bullish and 36%
bearish. The red lines below signal points in time when HSY changed trends or
|The most bullish signals are coming from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ($REGN), |
Newmont Corporation ($NEM), Citrix Systems ($CTXS), Cabot Oil & Gas ($COG),
Apache Corporation ($APA) while some of the most bearish signals are coming
from: Fox Corporation Class B ($FOX), Wynn Resorts Ltd ($WYNN), United Airlines
Holdings ($UAL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc ($HLT), Norwegian Cruise Line
Holdings ($NCLH) A full write-up and chart-pack is coming tomorrow. Please reply
to this email if you are interested. We’d love to know how you incorporate alerts
into your market analysis.
|Remind me what Breakpoint is again?|
We help advisors and investors better navigate changing market conditions, our proprietary forecasting and alerts help investors separate signal from the noise and focus their time researching the opportunities where machine learning models, trend systems and historical relationships have broken down.
Alternative data sources for your COVID-19 Resource Center
We plan to add new resources each week that we have reviewed which highlight the environmental and economic impact to the U.S. and global systems.
- Trend of e-commerce shoppers buying online through COVID-19
- A public data lake for analysis of COVID-19 data
- Chart of Media Consumption through the COVID-19 period
- Interactive, live view of Consumer Spending throughout the Outbreak
- Formal paper and hearings on CorVexit: Which Way Forward
- Top 10 Coronavirus Initiatives by Fintech firms
Our community shares ideas for alternative information to enhance their research process and client narrative so we always welcome your suggestions.
Here are the posts most read on Portformer.com:
- Portformer Performance During Market Correction
- Tactical Alert – Fed will Buy Bond ETFs
- Tactical Alert – Adjusting to ETF-ETN Fund Closures
Question of the Week:
How has your talent/people plan been impacted by the recent events and heightened client engagement ?
Please share with us via our chatbox at Portformer or reply to this email and the information will remain confidential.
What we’re Reading:
Here is a snapshot of the best articles compiled and read by our team:
- Should You Rebalance Now: Two Perspectives– Excellent perspective from 2 advisors on the benefits-perils of- rebalancing now.
- IBDs Face Hard Times in 2020 – Discussion of how independent broker-dealers have been impacted and the headwinds going forward.
- Lipper U.S. Weekly Flow Report: Equity Outflows Continue Despite Strong Market– Weekly flow report from Lipper that discussed fund flows for all asset classes with corresponding market action.
- Smaller Wealth Managers are More Vulnerable after the Crisis– Vulnerability of smaller wealth firms impacted by the recent correction and heading into bear market.
- How Have ETFs Fared during this Bear Market – General commentary from Morningstar on how ETFs have fared through this period.
- RIA M&A: What’s Next in Early 2020 – Synopsis of M&A environment presently with softening valuations and dearth of M&A acquirers.
If you have any difficulty accessing these articles and papers, please reach us through our website or directly at email@example.com.
If you know of someone in your professional community or study group who is looking for assistance or clear perspective, please share our name. Forward this email to them and you can find us on social media at Twitter @Portformer and LinkedIn at Portformer.
We’re happy to share our network, so if we can make an introduction or referral to a potential provider, financial partner or may be considering another path for your business, please don’t hesitate to contact us and most of all, there is no financial benefit to us.
Always be safe,
Sean Kruzel and the Portformer™ Team